5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. The Fed minutes suggest a rate cut in September is on the cards and there are questions on how economic data gets released. He [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. The Fed minutes suggest a rate cut in September is on the cards and there are questions on how economic data gets released. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [Sam Unsted]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. September cut The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed the [“vast majority” of officials]( see a rate cut in September as appropriate, while several saw a plausible case for a reduction at the last decision. That sets up Chair Jerome Powell to usher in the next phase of the Fed’s inflation battle at Jackson Hole on Friday, when he’s expected to [further underpin the view that a cut is coming](. Payroll questions That narrative was also helped by preliminary revisions to [US payroll numbers]( which indicated the biggest markdown of workers since 2009 and that the labor market started moderating much sooner than originally thought. The release of the data, however, [raised new questions about fair access]( after the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided the revision number to [at least three Wall Street firms]( while it was delayed on its website. Economic clues Powell’s Jackson Hole speech remains front of mind for traders, [with stocks fluctuating]( and little movement in either Treasuries or the dollar. Jobless claims and initial PMI readings for the US will give more clues on the health of the economy. Europe’s economy, meanwhile, got a [surprise uplift from the Paris Olympics]( with the composite PMI reading for the area topping even the most optimistic forecasts. Money set aside Toronto-Dominion Bank is [setting aside $2.6 billion]( to cover fines it expects for failures in money-laundering controls in its US business. The Canadian lender is also selling part of its stake in broker Charles Schwab to cover those costs, a holding it acquired when it sold its interest in online brokerage TD Ameritrade to Schwab back in 2020. TD is set to report results before the open. AI and Zoom The rest of the corporate calendar is relatively quiet, with accounting and tax software firm Intuit coming after the close. Ahead of that, Snowflake, another software firm, is falling in premarket trading as its sales outlook [failed to soothe worries]( about its strength in AI tools. And Zoom Communications is higher after seeing [better revenue from products other than]( its eponymous video-conferencing offering. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - The race to build a [flying car industry](. - A [longtime bond king]( is thrust into the spotlight. - [Massive diamond]( found at a Botswana mine. - A [complex mosaic of infection patterns]( raises mpox risk. - [Major snarls]( in Canada’s two biggest railways. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning By the time you're reading this, hopefully I'll have landed safely in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the start of the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium. There are plenty of previews out there, and everyone is looking for color or new information about the timing and magnitude of the rate-cutting cycle. A rate cut of some sort in September has seemed like a lock for awhile, and it's been further reinforced by the release of the [July FOMC minutes]( which indicated a widespread view on the committee that the next meeting would likely be an appropriate time to get moving. In addition to the minutes, [we also got the benchmark revisions]( which indicated that there were 818,000 fewer jobs created over the 12 months prior to March than had been previously estimated. Now revisions of all sorts tend to bring out the cranks and knaves who see grand conspiracy from government statistical agencies updating their numbers as more complete information comes in. But setting all that aside, it's clear that the pace of job creation has cooled down dramatically over the last year or so. And you didn't even need to see the revisions to know this. Other measures, like the hiring rate (in the JOLTS report) have also come way in. You can have all kinds of debates about the significance of 4.3% unemployment, and the triggering of the Sahm Rule, and why maybe this time is different or not. Maybe it is, maybe it's not. But for a long time, the story about what was driving inflation higher was that the labor market was just too tight, leading to higher wages, higher prices, and risk of a dreaded spiral. Whether that story ever had valence or not is something that people will be discussing in academic papers for years to come. But what seems to be obvious right now is that the labor market has cooled significantly, and so it's clear to which half of its dual mandate the Fed will be more attuned. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X [@TheStalwart]( [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Stay updated by saving our new email address Our email address is changing, which means you’ll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. 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