We’re all susceptible to vibe encroachment

A good meme and a good argument aren't the same thing. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an amateur paparazzi dressed in dungarees stalking Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [DEI hires]( raise the bar. - [Guesswork]( won’t get you far. - [Bucket list]( Get in the car. - [Enjoy DNC]( from afar. Moral Assumptions If you learn one thing from this newsletter, let it be this: Vibes are NOT facts! You’d be forgiven for thinking they are, given our [current]( [state]( of [affairs]( and society’s unending love for memes. But here at Bloomberg — a media company that doubles as a financial software data company — people who use vibe shifts alone to make an argument aren’t gonna pass the smell test. Three examples from today: - Sports Betting: A [recent study]( says legalized online sports gambling burdens family finances. But “the conclusion reflects the moral assumptions of the authors rather than the statistical evidence,” Aaron Brown [writes](. One such assumption? Households that spend a high proportion of their incomes lack discipline and are reckless. But that’s *not* a fact — that’s just a vibe. “Perhaps some of these are aggressive households, confident of the future, enjoying life today, acquiring useful assets and experiences, who are justified in taking risks,” he writes. - DEI: Haters of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives [assume]( that marginalized people cheat their way through the hiring process. That’s also just a vibe; there’s [no evidence]( of that being true, Laura Morgan Roberts writes. Plus, [she says]( “the opposite of diversity is not meritocracy. It’s homogeneity. And [homogeneity]( not diversity, is what tends to lower the bar.” - Recession Predictions: Turns out, economic napkin math is also [susceptible]( to vibe encroachment. “There’s a false precision in the entire recession-probability practice,” Jonathan Levin [writes](. Market volatility certainly plays a role, but TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins says economists “may simply be motivated by fame or career advancement, clustering around probabilities that make them seem interesting enough while retaining plausible deniability if they’re wrong.” Anyway, it’d be real neat if someone made this into a bumper sticker: Vibes Are Cool, But Facts Rule. Bucket Lists The other day, my desk neighbor Christina Sterbenz told me that we need to be gatekeeping more often. And you know what? I wholeheartedly agree with her. A bakery I frequent in New York City — no, you haven’t earned the name! — often has a line out the door, but the tourists always order the TikTok-famous baked goods, not realizing the true gems of the place are the limited-edition items. Like this tomato focaccia sandwich that honestly changed my life: Live sequence of my brain being altered by this sandwich. Which brings me to Howard Chua-Eoan, [who says]( “too many of us seem to have the same bucket list: Climb Mount Everest; see the Mona Lisa; visit Versailles; circumambulate Stonehenge; sashay after geisha in Kyoto; float through Venice; ogle the Crown Jewels. The lack of originality has led to the overcrowding of these fabled sites — and a lot of grumbling from the locals. It’s also put many of the objects and sites at risk: Leonardo da Vinci’s masterpiece at the Louvre has been assaulted several times. Stonehenge was spray painted by climate activists. Kyoto’s elegantly kimonoed geisha have been harassed by amateur paparazzi dressed in dungarees.” In an effort to remedy this, Howard offers up his own bucket list: Skip the Mona Lisa, see Lady with an Ermine, another Da Vinci masterpiece. Instead of Versailles, check out the royal palace of Caserta, about a 40-minute drive outside Naples. Kyoto is cool, but Chengdu — the capital of China’s Sichuan province — is about 1,000 years older AND has giant pandas. Also, I’d argue that not all bucket lists need to include elaborate, international travel plans. Mine, for instance, involves [a tiramisu drawer]( and a [strawberry sculpture]( — things I can do in my own kitchen. Maybe yours involves acquiring [a certain]( seasonal tomato sandwich. Just a guess! [DNC]( Roundup Here come those vibes again. I swear, the DNC hasn’t been this much of a party since the days of [Obamacore](. Vice President Kamala Harris is [bringing back]( the [tan suit]( of [all things]( Her supporters are rocking Nancy Pelosi [“Godmother” pins](. [Young Sheldon]( and the [Bushwick delegation]( are in attendance. Joe Biden is [cracking jokes]( AOC is doing [heart hands]( after [calling]( Trump a “two-bit union buster.” [Tim Walz]( is galavanting around in [Hokas](. His kids are giving him [bunny ears]( The [Wifi]( is good. And everyone ([save for]( Kathy Hochul, maybe) is gearing up [for a fight](. Appetizer Quote: “Where Trump’s mind is solipsistic, Harris’ worldview is open. Where he wants to retreat into isolationism, she intends to keep leading. Where his instinct is to go it alone (wasting America’s strength along the way), hers is to look for partners to share the burden, the better to conserve American might.” — Andreas Kluth, [Harris and Walz Can Bring Worldliness to Chicago — and the World]( Entrée Chart: This morning, Bloomberg News’ Amanda Gordon [reported]( that women made up 60% of Democratic donors in July, when the campaign raised [$310 million](. “Harris could inspire more women to give — and, importantly, at higher rates — than in any federal election yet,” Amanda writes. While that’s certainly welcome news, Francis Wilkinson [says]( a portion of women increasingly feel ostracized by the party. “It wasn’t long ago that about one-third of Democrats described themselves as pro-life,” he writes. But is there a place for anti-abortion Democrats in 2024? Francis joined [Democrats for Life of America]( for a discussion to find out. Dessert Photo: I really have no words for Nancy Pelosi’s [embrace]( of Jack Schlossberg! But it’s amazing. Further Reading It’s one business heir versus another in [the battle]( to take control of Paramount Global. — Chris Hughes Why is Keir Starmer [needlessly antagonizing]( such an important voting bloc? — Adrian Wooldridge Thailand is in the middle of yet another [political crisis](. Citizens deserve better. — Karishma Vaswani Asia’s richest man is [using Shein]( to shake up India’s fast-fashion industry. — Andy Mukherjee There’s no need to rush to build Indonesia’s [jungle metropolis]( of Nusantara. — Daniel Moss Africa needs more than an [independent agency]( to fix its credit rating problem. — Ken Opalo ICYMI Elon Musk’s [Twitter takeover]( was terrible for banks. “Call Her Daddy” has a $100 million [SiriusXM deal](. A [luxury yacht sunk]( off the coast of Sicily. Fewer teens want to get their [driver’s license](. Kickers The best [unsalted butter](. Creators [aren’t editing]( anymore. Beyoncé launched [a whiskey brand](. Who gets the [airline miles]( in the divorce? Notes: Please send [SirDavis]( and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads]( [TikTok]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Stay updated by saving our new email address Our email address is changing, which means you’ll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. Here’s how to update your contacts to ensure you continue receiving it: - Gmail: Open an email from Bloomberg, click the three dots in the top right corner, select “Mark as important.” - Outlook: Right-click on Bloomberg’s email address and select “Add to Outlook Contacts.” - Apple Mail: Open the email, click on Bloomberg’s email address, and select “Add to Contacts” or “Add to VIPs.” - Yahoo Mail: Open an email from Bloomberg, hover over the email address, click “Add to Contacts.” Like getting this newsletter? 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