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Hello trader,
Yesterday we saw an unprecedented plummet in crude oil futures. The crude oil futures contracts that expired yesterday settled at -$37.63 per barrel.
You read that right⦠those futures prices closed at negative territory.
Itâs something even the Wall Street veterans are scratching their heads and wondering about.
Why did that happen?
My Take On Negative Crude Oil Prices
Well, those futures contracts were thinly traded and were set to expire. My take is that there is little to no demand for oil right now due to the coronavirus pandemic⦠so much so that a buyer of those contracts would have to pay someone to take the barrels of oil off their hands.
Thatâs a signal to me that there is very little storage capacity out there as the glut of crude oil continues to rise.
Not only that but negative oil prices cast a foreboding stormcloud that the coronavirus has damaged the economy.
Of course, low crude oil prices would benefit consumers⦠but whoâs really even driving a lot these days, minus the essential workforce?
What I really think happened with oil prices yesterday was a âlong squeezeâ.
Basically, the buyers of those contracts scrambled to get out because they didnât want to take delivery of crude oil⦠so they just sold at any price they could get, leading to negative prices.
What I Can Do With That Information
Of course, youâre probably wondering, âKyle, what does this all mean and how is it applicable to your trading?â
Well, one piece of the puzzle is put together⦠but in order to [take advantage of this, I would need to find a potential play.](
For me, I love to look to my [Dollar Ace strategy]( to try to figure out where the smart money is placing their bets.
One trade that came across my screen was a $461K bet in Energy Transfer LP (ET) â a diversified midstream energy company that transports, stores, and terminals oil and gas products.
Why was this trade so interesting to me?
Well, someone came in and purchase 2,000 July 20 $4 calls for about $2.30 per contract, when the stock price was around $6 a share. In other words, those were deep in-the-money (ITM) calls.
[Why would someone buy the call options instead of buying shares of the stock outright?](
Leverage because they wouldâve had to pay $1.2M to buy 200K shares of ET outright, but by purchasing those call options⦠they only had to pay a fraction of that, just $461K.
Could the trader be looking for a massive move in ET⦠or do they know something that everyday traders donât?
Who knows⦠and only time will tell.
There is an interesting chart setup in ET right now. If you look at the daily chart below ET, thereâs a bull flag formation.
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From my experience, stocks typically breakout when it forms this pattern⦠and right now, thereâs room all the way to about $8.50, and if ET breaks above that, it could potentially fill the gap.
The thing is⦠I didnât take this trade.
Why?
It simply didnât fit into my trading system, but I found this setup so interesting that I needed to share it with someone.
My trading system focuses on buying out-of-the-money (OTM) options that may look like wild bets to the untrained eye. [More specifically, I want to look for options priced under $1 that are set to expire worthless, unless thereâs a catalyst.](
Of course, I could talk about how Iâve made a small fortune using my Dollar Ace trading systemâ¦
However, I believe it can be more beneficial if I teach you how to find these trades, as I reveal in my [Dollar Ace Masterclass.](
[I believe it can open you up to a whole new world of trading opportunities.](
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Kyle Dennis
The People's Trader
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Neither Kyle Dennis nor RagingBull.com, LLC (publisher of BiotechBreakouts) is registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of this website are advised that all information presented on this website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user's particular investment needs or objectives. The owners, employees and writers of RagingBull.com may engage in securities trading that is discussed or viewed on this website, but all such individuals are buying and selling such securities for their own account. These individuals do not engage in any trades with customers. The buying and selling of securities by these individuals is not part of a regular business of buying and selling securities. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Furthermore, such information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of this website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information included on this website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that owners, employees and writers of and for RagingBull.com, LLC may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on this website or newsletter, but all such positions are held for such representativeâs own account. Past results are not indicative of future profits. This table is accurate, though not every trade is represented. Profits and losses reported are actual figures from the portfolios Kyle Dennis manages on behalf of RagingBull.com, LLC.
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