Heart of the Primaries: Republicans, Issue 19

[Heart of the Primaries newsletter] Sponsored by Political Wire This week: Previewing the May 22 primaries. [Click here]( to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at geoff@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues! UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES [Upcoming filing deadlines]( UPCOMING PRIMARY ELECTIONS [Upcoming primary elections] DECLARED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES [Declared congressional candidates]( REPUBLICAN PUNDITS ON THE NEWS Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views. “With very few notable exceptions — House Freedom Caucus-endorsed Russ Fulcher’s victory in the GOP primary in Idaho’s 1st Congressional District and Mark Harris’ upset over Rep. Robert Pittenger, R-N.C. — the moderate wing of the Republican Party is dominating conservatives in primaries this 2018 cycle.” - Chris Pandolfo, [The Conservative Review](, May 16, 2018 “Barletta's victory continues President Trump's winning streak in contested Republican primaries. Barletta was a Trump supporter before the 2016 presidential nomination was settled. That loyalty earned him Trump's early support in the Senate race, as well as recorded telephone calls last weekend featuring the president backing Barletta ‘fully, strongly and proudly.’" - Samuel Chamberlain, [Fox News](, May 16, 2018 MAY 22 PRIMARIES PREVIEW Five candidate showdown in Georgia gubernatorial primary [Nathan Deal]Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial primary features Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, former state Sen. Hunter Hill, state Sen. Michael Williams, and businessman Clay Tippins. Incumbent Nathan Deal (R) (pictured left) is term-limited. We asked Georgia Republican strategist Mike Hassinger (who is not working any of the candidates) for his take on the race: “Every candidate is seeking to portray themselves as the ‘most conservative,’ and none seems to have a strategy for tacking back to the middle for the general election. At this time, Cagle is the clear frontrunner, because of his tenure as Lt. Governor, and the only real question is which candidate will face him in a runoff. “Insiders point to Kemp as the most likely second-place finisher, although Hill is likeable and popular. Tippins was a late entry to the race who came out of nowhere and quickly returned. “Williams is a true dark horse candidate, calling himself a ‘fearless conservative’ who has thrown caution to the wind and attacked his opponents, especially Cagle, repeatedly, with no sense of shame, as was the style of Donald Trump in the presidential election. Most political observers have written him off, just as Trump was written off, but lightning may just strike twice.” Texas congressional runoffs will shape future of House Freedom Caucus [House Freedom Caucus]Five [Republican runoffs]( to replace retiring members of Texas’ congressional delegation will shape the future of the [House Freedom Caucus](. Runoffs to replace Jeb Hensarling (R), Joe Barton (R), and Blake Farenthold (R) all feature candidates likely to join the Freedom Caucus facing off with candidates unlikely to join. In the runoff to replace Lamar Smith (R), both Republicans said they would join the Caucus. Only in the runoff to replace Ted Poe (R) is neither candidate likely to join. Barton is currently a member of the Freedom Caucus. Poe was a member until March 2017, when he [left the Caucus during the debate]( over repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. The runoffs are occurring in safe Republican seats, meaning the winners are likely to win their general elections. Texas state House runoffs feature more fights over Speaker Joe Straus (R) [Joe Straus]Republican infighting over outgoing Texas House Speaker Joe Straus (R) will feature in five of seven[state House runoff elections]( Tuesday. Texas Republicans remain divided over Straus’ approach to education, property taxes, and bathroom access policy. His policies often conflicted with those of more conservative Republicans like Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick and Gov. Greg Abbott. Should Straus’ slate of favored candidates win their respective runoffs, the policies he favored, and the conflicts they created, are likely to continue to roil Republican ranks. In the [March 6 primaries](, anti-Straus Republicans defeated two pro-Straus House incumbents, but five other pro-Straus incumbents defeated prominent anti-Straus challengers. Each faction won three open primaries. The key runoffs Tuesday are in [Districts 4]( and [121](, where anti-Straus and pro-Straus candidates are competing to replace Straus ally Byron Cook and Straus himself. [U.S. Congress][Congress by the numbers] Cline wins GOP nomination at VA-06 convention on the first ballot After weeks of in-fighting over convention rules, state Delegate Ben Cline (R) was selected as the Republican nominee for [Virginia's 6th Congressional District]( at the district convention Saturday. Republican National Committee member [Cynthia Dunbar]( (R), who was reportedly [favored]( by leadership in the district, supported the plurality vote as a way to prevent backroom deals at the convention. Cline and other candidates supported a majority vote, alleging that committee chair Scott Sayre was attempting to rig the convention. Delegates selected the majority vote victory method at the convention. Cline [won]( 52 percent of the vote on the first ballot after circuit court clerk [Chaz Haywood]( (R) withdrew from the race and endorsed Cline. Vukmir wins party endorsement for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin The [Republican Party of Wisconsin]( endorsed state Sen. [Leah Vukmir]( (R) for [U.S. Senate in Wisconsin](. Vukmir won the backing of 73 percent of the delegates at the party's state convention. Marine Corps veteran [Kevin Nicholson]( (R) received 27 percent. The endorsement gives Vukmir access to party resources like field offices and donor lists. Wisconsin Next PAC highlighted the endorsement in a $500,000 [ad buy](, calling Vukmir a “consistent conservative.” Nicholson, who once served as the president of the College Democrats of America, has been criticized for his Democratic past. At the convention, he [reiterated]( how his military background led to his political conversion and [questioned]( how veterans could support Democratic candidates. McSally withdraws support for pathway to citizenship for Dreamers [Arizona Senate]( candidate Rep. [Martha McSally]( (R-Ariz.) withdrew her cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers—individuals brought into the U.S. without legal permission. McSally primary rivals [Kelli Ward]( (R) and [Joe Arpaio]( (R) criticized her for the policy shift. Ward’s campaign said McSally was having an "identity crisis” while Ward would continue to promote "pro-border, pro-law" policies. Arpaio’s campaign also criticized McSally. In January, Arpaio said he would deport all individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as children. McSally’s office responded to the criticism, noting her co-sponsorship of the Securing America’s Future Act. That bill would end the diversity visa program and grant "contingent nonimmigrant status," not citizenship, to Dreamers. Rohrabacher faces former staffer in primary [Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's]( (R) re-election bid in [California’s 48 Congressional District]( has an interesting twist: one of his primary challengers is his former staffer, Scott Baugh (R). Under California's top-two primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters in the June 5 primary advance to the general election. Baugh has [run ads]( [arguing]( that Rohrabacher "has lost focus on what’s important,” pays more attention to “Vladimir Putin, Julian Assange and marijuana" than he does to voters’ concerns. The Orange County Republican Party circulated [a letter]( requested Baugh suspend his “divisive” campaign. Businessman Stelian Onufrei (R) [suspended]( his campaign in April and endorsed Baugh, saying he did not want to split the anti-Rohrabacher GOP vote. Casselman: Minnesota's 8th Congressional District Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. His blog, The Prairie Editor, can be found at [www.barrycasselman.com](. The relatively small Midwestern state of Minnesota has become the emblematic battleground for major party control of the U.S. House and Senate. Four of its eight congressional seats are up for grabs in 2018, and because of Al Franken’s unexpected resignation, both U.S. Senate seats are on the November ballot. The GOP’s most likely congressional pickup is in the northeastern 8th District, where probable Republican nominee Pete Stauber is now the favorite to win the seat currently held by retiring Democratic (DFL) Rep. Rick Nolan. Stauber’s prospects were recently enhanced when the DFL failed to endorse a candidate among five DFLers seeking to replace Nolan. At least four of them will now have a bitter primary contest that won’t be settled until August. Candidate survey reply of the week Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? [Complete a survey](, and you may be featured here. [Joe Hunt]What is your favorite book? Why? "Moneyball. Finding a new lens to look through same tasks using data and without human emotion allows us to identify innovative pathways for success." - Joe Hunt, candidate for Georgia's 10th Congressional District [Read all of Joe Hunt's responses]( → Advertisement [Political Wire]( Join Political Wire to get exclusive analysis and reporting, a 24/7 trending news aggregator, new features and no advertising. Members join a community with a deep understanding of politics and public policy and also help support a site that is focused entirely on its readers. Ballotpedia readers get 10% off an [annual membership]( with coupon code “Ballotpedia” Inquire at ads@ballotpedia.org to advertise here in next week’s edition. [Governors][Gubernatorial races by the numbers] Cox endorsed by President Trump [John Cox]Businessman [John Cox’s]( (R) bid for governor of California was endorsed by President Trump Friday. Cox is among the 27 candidates, including five Republicans, who will appear on the [June 5 primary ballot](. The top two votegetters, regardless of party, will advance to the general election in November. Among Cox’s opponents is Assemblyman [Travis Allen]( (R), who has emphasized his own similarities to President Trump, [saying]( that “all we need to do is turn out the Trump voters and Travis Allen will be the next governor in the State of California.” Supporters of both Cox and Allen have called on the other candidate to suspend their campaign to decrease the chances that two Democrats will advance. Cox is the fourth candidate running for governor in 2018 to receive the president’s endorsement, joining Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC), Attorney General Bill Schuette (R-MI), and Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Pawlenty won’t seek Party endorsement for governor [Tim Pawlenty]Former Gov. [Tim Pawlenty]( (R-MN) announced Tuesday he would not seek the Republican Party of Minnesota's endorsement in his gubernatorial comeback bid. This likely sets up a primary battle between Pawlenty and Hennepin County Commissioner [Jeff Johnson]( (R), who political observers consider the frontrunner for the party endorsement. Johnson was GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2014, when he was defeated by incumbent Gov. Mark Dayton (D). Minnesota’s statewide candidates are not required to earn the party's endorsement in order to appear on the primary ballot. But candidates will often suspend their campaigns without it. Ten candidates have announced their intention to seek the Republican nomination. The filing deadline is June 5. The [Aug. 14 primary]( is open to all registered voters. [State legislatures] Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. [This chart shows]( the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. [State legislative Republican primaries, 2018 vs. 2016] Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 15.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 49.3 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 14.4 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 16.5 percent. *Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016 **Not holding state Senate elections in 2018 ***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries California GOP splits over cap-and-trade in state Assembly primaries [California Republican Party]Keep[an eye]( on these June 5 California State Assembly [primaries](. California uses top-two primaries, which means all candidates, regardless of party, run together on the same primary ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election. - [Assembly District 42](: Former Assembly Republican Leader Chad Mayes faces two Republican challengers. Mayes was ousted as the GOP leader in August 2017 for supporting Democrat-backed cap-and-trade legislation. Afterward, he started [New Way California](, a moderate Republican organization supported by former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R). - [Assembly District 26](: Assemblyman Devon Mathis also faces two Republican challengers after voting for the cap-and-trade bill and being accused of sexual misconduct. - [Assembly District 76](: Six Republicans and two Democrats filed to replace Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R), a cap-and-trade supporter running for the 49th Congressional District. If the six Republicans split the vote too evenly, the two Democrats could advance to the general election. [Power Players] A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party. Texas Association of Business [Texas Association of Businesses]The Texas Association of Business (TAB) is fighting on two fronts in the Tuesday’s Texas [congressional runoffs]( -- one against the House Freedom Caucus, and the other against the Club for Growth. The runoffs for the [5th]( and [27th]( Districts feature candidates likely to join the Freedom Caucus (HFC) running against candidates unlikely to join (non-HFC). The TAB is backing the non-HFC candidates, endorsing Kevin Roberts in the [2nd Congressional District](, Lance Gooden in the 5th, and Bech Bruun in the 27th. TAB-endorsed candidates face off against Club for Growth-backed Bunni Pounds in the 5th District race and Michael Cloud in the 27th District. While the TAB’s PAC [raised]( $37,000 through first quarter, Club for Growth’s PAC has so far spent about $1.5 million on Texas races. TAB CEO Jeff Moseley [said]( he wants to make clear there’s a counterpoint to policies being promoted by conservative-leaning groups like Club for Growth. Club for Growth President David McIntosh [said]( the TAB is “widely viewed as the liberal to moderate Republican group.” He added that being a "pro-business, establishment Republican" wasn’t necessarily a popular label among Texas primary voters. What we're reading - Turn Pennsylvania Red...No, Red [The National Review]( - New GOP Group to Fight for Control of House [Newsmax]( - Mark Boughton wins GOP endorsement on third ballot [The Ct Mirror]( - Pennsylvania primary results show surprising Trump strength. Take heart, GOP! [Fox News]( Share this email: [Facebook]([Twitter]( [Political Wire]( Want to sponsor this newsletter? Reach donors, consultants, activists, and voters with your message. Contact ads@ballotpedia.org for more information about advertising. [View on Ballotpedia]( Choose which emails you would like to receive from Ballotpedia: [Unsubscribe]( or [manage your subscription](