Heart of the Primaries: Republicans, Issue 17

[Heart of the Primaries newsletter] Sponsored by Political Wire This week: It's almost May 8. Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia are home to some of the most important Republican primaries happening this year. Here's what to look for as voters head to the polls. [Click here]( to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at geoff@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues! REPUBLICAN PUNDITS ON THE NEWS Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views. “As long as there is not a new party invented between now and November, it’s going to be very close, and we absolutely can keep the House … We’re very blessed to have Nancy Pelosi in our lives. I hope she never retires.” - Corry Bliss, quoted in [NBC News](, April 26, 2018 “Although it may be tempting to dismiss the reports of energy on the left as ‘fake news,’ Republican candidates cannot simply rest on their laurels. Republican candidates must stay laser focused on their policy accomplishments, contrasting their records while exposing who their opponents are.” - Jeff Berkowitz, [The Hill](, May 3, 2018 UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES [Upcoming filing deadlines]( UPCOMING PRIMARY ELECTIONS [Upcoming primary elections] DECLARED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES [Declared congressional candidates]( MAY 8 PRIMARIES PREVIEW [Don Blankenship]Satellite groups spend more than $4 million on West Virginia Senate race Outside groups have spent more than $4 million on ads in the contentious, three-way battle between former coal mining executive [Don Blankenship]( (R), Rep. [Evan Jenkins]( (R) and state Attorney General [Patrick Morrisey]( (R) for the GOP Senate nomination in [West Virginia](. [Evan Jenkins]Blankenship, who served a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards, has spent more than $1 million on ads defending himself. But he’s also gone on the attack, [accusing]( Senate Majority Leader [Mitch McConnell]( (R-Ky.) of meddling in the election, and [tagging]( McConnell as “Cocaine Mitch.” Two new satellite groups—[Mountain Families PAC]( and [Duty and Country PAC](—have each spent more than $1 million on the race. [Patrick Morrisey]Mountain Families, which has links to the national Republican Party, ran an ad [calling]( Blankenship a convicted criminal. Duty and Country, a Democratic-linked super PAC, attacked Jenkins and Morrissey. Jenkins [said]( Duty and Country was targeting him to boost Blankenship and provide a more favorable opponent for incumbent Sen. [Joe Manchin]( (D). Indiana Senate primary dubbed nastiest of the year Two college rivals—U.S. Reps. [Luke Messer]( (R-Ind.) and [Todd Rokita]( (R-Ind.)—and former state Rep. [Mike Braun]( (R) are slugging it out in an increasingly nasty Republican primary for the toss-up [U.S. Senate seat in Indiana](. Messer and Rokita have been characterized as carbon copies and career politicians, while Braun has been hit for his Democratic voting record. All three candidates have accused one another of disloyalty to President [Donald Trump]( (R) and the Republican Party. Accusations of ethics violations, and state residency issues have been made as well. Julie Roush of the Tippecanoe County GOP said the primary would reflect whether “people truly want the swamp drained, or are they going to continue to vote for the same politicians.” Lynn Fitzpatrick of the St. Joseph County GOP told Ballotpedia “I have heard that Trump prefers Rokita and Pence prefers Messer. But all are better than [incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D)].” Pence faces self-funded businessman Lamb in IN-6 [Greg Pence]Greg Pence, the brother of Vice President Mike Pence, and businessman Jonathan Lamb are the top candidates to replace Luke Messer in [Indiana’s 6th Congressional District](. Pence raised over $1 million with the help of his brother, Messer, House Republican leaders, and Donald Trump Jr. Lamb loaned his campaign $800,000 and released several television ads. Lamb opposed President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, while Pence supported them. Lamb also said Pence was a Washington insider who was running on his brother’s name. Pence said he was proud of his brother, but he was running to support Trump’s agenda. Conservative credentials define Ohio governor primary [Mike DeWine]Attorney General [Mike DeWine]( (R) and Lt. Gov. [Mary Taylor]( (R) are locked in [a head-to-head battle]( over ideological purity in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Each candidate says they are the true conservative in the race. Taylor ads call DeWine "too liberal for Ohio,” while DeWine ads say "Mary Taylor is a fake conservative.” [Mary Taylor]A defining moment in the race was Secretary of State Jon Husted’s (R) November announcement that he would withdraw and run for lieutenant governor as DeWine’s running mate, merging the campaigns’ finances. Gov. Kasich and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) have endorsed Taylor. The Republican Party of Ohio and more than half of the Republican members of the state Legislature have endorsed DeWine. Ten Republicans battle for open seat in OH-12 State Sen. [Troy Balderson]( (R) and businesswoman [Melanie Leneghan]( (R) are competing against eight other Republicans in [Ohio’s 12th Congressional District]( to fill Rep. [Patrick Tiberi]( (R)'s vacant seat. Tiberi endorsed Balderson and Defending Main Street spent more than $400,000 on ads backing him. Leneghan landed endorsements from the [House Freedom Caucus]( and Reps. [Mark Meadows]( (R-N.C.) and [Jim Jordan]( (R-Ohio). OH-16 primary is a fight between pro-Trump forces and congressional GOP leaders [Anthony Gonzalez]Supporters of state Rep. [Christina Hagan]( (R) say the [Ohio 16th Congressional District]( primary fight with former Ohio State University football player [Anthony Gonzalez]( (R) reflects the larger intra-party battle between pro-Trump conservatives and establishment Republicans.[Christina Hagan] Diane Stover, president of Ohio Values Voters and a Hagan supporter, said a Hagan victory would “show growth in electing more conservative candidates who align with President Trump versus Anthony Gonzalez who represents the establishment of the Republican Party.” The Gonzalez campaign and several organizations that endorsed him did not respond to requests to comment on this story. But in published reports, Gonzales [dismissed]( accusations he is anti-Trump, saying he agrees with the president on trade, tax, and immigration policy. Hagan’s support for Trump is the centerpiece of her campaign. The House Freedom Caucus and former Trump administration officials Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka have endorsed her. House Majority Leader [Kevin McCarthy]( (R-Calif.), Sen. [Marco Rubio]( (R-Fla.), and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have endorsed Gonzales. Smith versus Householder speaker race dominates Ohio legislative primaries Most of the 29 Ohio state House [Republican primaries]( are proxy fights between House speaker candidates Ryan Smith and Larry Householder. Smith is a favorite of recently departed Speaker Cliff Rosenberger, who resigned in April after learning the FBI was investigating his relationships with lobbyists. Due to his connections with leadership, the House Republican campaign committee is assisting Smith’s 2018 candidates. Householder served as speaker in the early 2000s. Householder and his primary candidates have support from labor unions and energy companies. Two elections for speaker will happen this year. The first is May 15 and will decide who replaces Rosenberger for the rest of 2018. Smith says he has the votes to win. The second occurs after the November elections (provided Republicans keep the majority) and will decide the 2019-2020 speakership. Because newly-elected House Republicans can vote, this is where Householder and Smith will likely have their showdown. Jones faces criticism for voting against Trump’s agenda in NC-03 Incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R) faces two challengers in [North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District]( primary who have criticized Jones for deviating from President Trump’s agenda. Jones voted against legislation that would have repealed and replaced [Obamacare]( in 2017 and was one of 12 Republican House members to vote against the [Tax Cuts and Jobs Act](. Candidate [Scott Dacey]( said that while he may sometimes question the president’s policies, overall, "I’m in line with it.” Candidate [Phil Law](, who unsuccessfully challenged Jones in 2016, said this time, "Voters have a choice between a 34-year politician, a casino lobbyist, or a patriot." Law's top [priority]( is the construction of a southern border wall. Trump won the 3rd District by 20 points in 2016. Because Democrats have not fielded a candidate, the Republican primary will likely decide the winner of the general election. Primary rematch in NC-09 Incumbent [Robert Pittenger]( faces a primary rematch against [Mark Harris]( May 8. Pittenger won the 2016 contest by 134 votes. Harris has said he is running again because Pittenger isn’t conservative enough for the district, and criticized Pittenger’s vote in favor of the [$1.3 billion spending bill](. The candidates have traded barbs throughout the campaign. Both contend they will be more supportive of President Trump. IN-04 candidates run as allies of Pence and Trump [Seven candidates filed]( for the traditionally Republican seat Rep. Todd Rokita (R) left open when he decided to seek the GOP Senate nomination. Among the candidates is former state Rep. [Steve Braun]( (R) served as Pence's director of workforce development. Another, [Diego Morales]( (R), worked as an adviser and director of community relations in the Pence administration. [Steve Braun]Morales [says]( that he is "the only candidate who can call the White House and get an answer.” Braun has [publicly questioned]( the importance of Morales' role in the administration, saying that he did not remember serving alongside him. [Diego Morales]State Rep. [Jim Baird]( (R) touts his military background and economic policies. Like Braun and Morales, Baird says that he will [provide the president with]( "reinforcements to pass his America First agenda and drain the swamp." Support for Trump key in WV-03 Seven candidates filed for the 3rd District seat that became [open]( when incumbent Rep. Evan Jenkins decided to seek the GOP Senate nomination. [Conrad Lucas]The leading candidates are former Republican Party of West Virginia Chairman [Conrad Lucas]( (R) and state Del. [Carol Miller]( (R). Both candidates emphasize their support for the president, who won the District by 49 percentage points in 2016. [Carol Miller]The Republican Main Street Partnership and the Family Policy Council have endorsed Lucas, while the Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce and the Susan B. Anthony List back Miller. Three North Carolina Senate races to watch Several important North Carolina Senate [Republican primaries]( are happening Tuesday. Here are the ones to watch: - District 39: Incumbent Dan Bishop, the author of a North Carolina [bill]( that required individuals to use the bathroom that corresponded with the sex on their birth certificate, is being challenged by Beth Monaghan, a businesswoman who opposed the legislation. After federal courts [ruled]( that some state Senate districts were unconstitutionally drawn based on race, parts of the map were redrawn and four Republican incumbents ended up inside the same lines. - District 31: Incumbent Joyce Krawiec faces District 34 incumbent Dan Barrett. - District 45: Incumbent Deanna Ballard faces District 30 incumbent Shirley Randleman. Both districts are [likely to remain]( Republican in the general election. [U.S. Congress][Congress by the numbers] Federal district judge rules Lamborn will appear on CO-05 primary ballot [Doug Lamborn]Incumbent Rep. [Doug Lamborn]( (R) [will appear]( on the June 26 primary ballot after all, a federal judge ruled Wednesday. The Colorado Supreme Court blocked Lamborn's re-election bid for [Colorado's 5th Congressional District](, ruling in favor of District voters who filed a lawsuit disputing the validity of the signatures Lamborn submitted to qualify for the ballot. Click [here to watch]( the Ballotpedia webinar with ballot measure expert Paul Jacob and ballot access authority Richard Winger on the initial ruling that removed Lamborn from the ballot. Candidate survey reply of the week Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? [Complete a survey](, and you may be featured here. Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow, and why? [Pat Manley]"I look up to my father more than anyone. He passed away in 2009. My dad worked very hard, was a wonderful father and always stuck to his principles in everything he did. We never had much financially, but being around him every day was more valuable than all the money in the world. He was just an incredible role model and an even greater man." - Pat Manley, candidate for Ohio's 12th Congressional District [Read all of Pat Manley's responses]( → Advertisement [Political Wire]( Join Political Wire to get exclusive analysis and reporting, a 24/7 trending news aggregator, new features and no advertising. Members join a community with a deep understanding of politics and public policy and also help support a site that is focused entirely on its readers. Ballotpedia readers get 10% off an [annual membership]( with coupon code "Ballotpedia" Inquire at ads@ballotpedia.org to advertise here in next week’s edition. [Governors][Gubernatorial races by the numbers] Warren puts additional $2.5 million into his South Carolina gubernatorial campaign [John Warren]Businessman [John Warren]( (R) announced Thursday that he had committed an additional $2.5 million to his gubernatorial bid, bringing his self-funding total to $3 million. First quarter fundraising reports showed Warren with $270,000 cash on hand. Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster's (R) had $3.0 million and former state Labor Commissioner Catherine Templeton's (R) $2.5 million. Five candidates are running in [the June 12 primary](, which is open to all voters. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a June 26 runoff. [South Carolina gubernatorial Republican primary campaign finance as of March 31, 2018] [Top 10 primaries webinar - 1:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, May 9]( Ballotpedia’s staff will be up late Tuesday covering statewide primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. [Join us Wednesday morning]( as we review the results from the day before and highlight the trends we saw across the May 8th primary states. This free webinar will have a special focus on the 7 GOP races that are part of our Top 10 primary elections to watch. [State legislatures] Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. [This chart shows]( the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed. [State legislative Republican primaries, 2018 vs. 2016] Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 12.7 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 52.7 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 12.7 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 17.2 percent. *Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016 **Not holding state Senate elections in 2018 ***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries Potts facing primary challenge from the center Idaho state Sen. Tony Potts (R-33) is [facing]( a primary challenge from Idaho Falls School District 91 trustee David Lent over education, taxes, and Medicaid expansion. Lent wants to build the College of Eastern Idaho, allow voters to decide on Medicaid expansion, and review the state’s recently enacted income tax cuts, which Lent thinks might be hurting larger families. Potts opposed the college, would consider overriding a successful voter initiative to expand Medicaid, and wants to end the state’s sales tax on groceries. [Getting to the polls in 2018]( Don’t forget to show up the polls on Primary Day this week with our handy calendar reminders. [Sign up now]( for our voter guide! [Power Players] A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party. Duty and Country PAC [Duty and Country PAC]( has [spent]( over $1.26 million in West Virginia’s [Republican Senate primary](. About $1.2 million has been spent on ads against [Rep. Evan Jenkins](, while another $47,000 was spent against attorney general [Patrick Morrisey](. The organization uses the same address and suite number as the [Senate Majority PAC](, which has links to national Democrats and has spent more than [$1.6 million]( on behalf of the Democratic incumbent, Sen. [Joe Manchin](. Duty and County PAC said it would not target [Don Blankenship](in an ad campaign. PAC Spokesman Mike Plante discussed this strategy, saying, “We made the strategic decision based on data that shows that either Patrick Morrisey or Evan Jenkins is more likely to be the nominee, so that’s where we’re focusing our attention." Last week we [wrote]( about [Mountain Families PAC](, which has spent about $1.33 million in the race. Together the two PACs’ spending brings the total to roughly $2.6 million. What we're reading - “Why poll showing millennial shift away from Democrats isn’t all good news for the GOP” ([Washington Examiner]() - “How a California Republican Party endorsement in the governor’s race could help the GOP hang on to Congress” ([Los Angeles Times]() - “West Virginia Free-for-All” ([Powerline]() - “Many Michigan Republican candidates flock to Trump” ([The Detroit News]() Share this email: [Facebook]([Twitter]( [Political Wire]( Want to sponsor this newsletter? Reach donors, consultants, activists, and voters with your message. Contact ads@ballotpedia.org for more information about advertising. [View on Ballotpedia]( Choose which emails you would like to receive from Ballotpedia: [Unsubscribe]( or [manage your subscription](