Elections we're watching next week (plus, a few extras)

Happy Saturday, readers. This edition State and Local Tap is all about elections. (If you haven’t heard there are a few of them next week!) Check out   [View this email in your browser]( [Ballotpedia](   [Facebook](   [Twitter](   [The Tap](   Happy Saturday, readers. This edition State and Local Tap is all about elections. (If you haven’t heard there are a few of them next week!) Check out the races we’re watching, plus highlights from the last week in state and local politics. [Check out all of next week's elections and this week's news](     [2017 Elections to Watch](   The most interesting races on Tuesday's ballot Will Virginia continue under divided government? Virginia gubernatorial election Virginia voters [will choose Tuesday]( the state's next governor from among Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R), and patent attorney Cliff Hyra (L). Since the beginning of September, 20 polls have been released in this race. Of those, 16 have indicated a lead for Northam while three showed Gillespie ahead and one showed Northam and Gillespie tied. Of the polls reporting a Northam lead, four have reported that his lead is outside the margin of error. All three polls indicating a Gillespie lead were released in the final two weeks of October. Campaign finance reports also indicate a close race. The Northam campaign had $1.6 million cash on hand to the Gillespie campaign's $1.3 million and the Hyra campaign's $5,200 as of Oct. 26. To date, the Northam campaign has reported a total of $33.8 million in contributions to the Gillespie campaign's $24.5 million and the Hyra campaign's $69,000. Because the sitting governor is a member of the Democratic Party while the Republican Party holds majorities in both houses of the legislature, Virginia is one of 18 states under divided government. A Republican victory in November's gubernatorial election would make the state a Republican trifecta. In addition to electing a new governor, voters in Virginia will elect [a lieutenant governor]( responsible for casting tie-breaking votes in the state Senate and succeeding a governor who is unable to fulfill the office's duties. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Justin Fairfax (D) and state Sen. Jill Vogel (R) will appear on the ballot. In [the attorney general election]( sitting Attorney General Mark Herring (D) is seeking a second four-year term as the state's chief legal officer, running against attorney John Adams (R). The Virginia House of Delegates has 13 Races to Watch on Tuesday The Virginia House of Delegates is [holding elections]( on Tuesday, November 7. Republicans currently hold a 66-34 majority in the chamber (where they’ve held control since 2000), meaning Democrats need to pick up 17 seats to win a majority. Coincidentally, Hillary Clinton (D) won 17 Republican-controlled seats in the 2016 presidential election. If Republicans take control of one extra seat, they will gain a two-thirds supermajority in the chamber that can override gubernatorial vetoes. So, will Democrats finally take back control of a chamber where they have been out of power for nearly two decades? Or will Republicans expand their dominance to a supermajority? Or will the result be something in between? Ballotpedia has identified 13 [Races to Watch]( for Tuesday night. These 13 races—nine Republican-held seats and four Democratic-held seats—are where changes in partisan control could occur. The results in these races could foretell what Virginia’s state government will look like come January 2018.   [Map of state government trifectas](     What’s on the ballot? Drug prices, a constitutional convention, and Medicaid expansion Ohio Issue 2, Drug Price Standards Largely because of record-setting spending over [Ohio Issue 2—the drug price standards initiative]( has featured over [$100 million in campaign contributions]( to ballot measure campaigns so far. Ohio Issue 2 would require the state and state agencies, including the Ohio Department of Medicaid, to pay the same or lower prices for prescriptions drugs as the [U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs]( (VA). The campaign in opposition to Ohio Issue 2—funded entirely by [Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America]( ([PhRMA]( and a PhRMA subsidiary—raised $58.26 million and had spent $50.44 million, while the support campaign—funded by the [AIDS Healthcare Foundation]( raised $16.72 million and had spent $16.71 million according to the latest campaign finance reports covering through October 21. At a total of about $75 million in contributions so far, this makes Issue 2 the most expensive ballot measure battle in the history of Ohio and one of the top 10 most expensive nation-wide since at least 2006. New York Proposal 1, Constitutional Convention Every 20 years, including on November 7, 2017, New York voters decide whether or not to hold a constitutional convention. If voters approve [Proposal 1]( on Tuesday, an election for constitutional convention delegates will be held in 2018 and proposed constitutional amendments or a new constitution designed by the delegates would be put before voters for ratification in November 2019. The [support campaign]( which has raised $871,600 among six committees, argues that the convention will allow a chance for voters to enact needed policy changes that are being prevented by entrenched interests, corruption, and gridlock. The [opposition campaign]( which has raised $3.2 million between three committees, argues that there is no limit to the proposals that could result from a convention and that special interests could use the convention process to remove existing protections or add their agendas to the state’s constitution. Opponents also argue that the convention process is costly and wasteful. See a list of [potential proposals]( their sources. Maine Question 2, Medicaid Expansion This [citizen initiative]( would expand Medicaid under the [Affordable Care Act]( (ACA), also known as [Obamacare]( to require the state to provide Medicaid through MaineCare for persons under the age of 65 and with incomes equal to or below 138 percent of the federal poverty line. According to the Portland Press Herald, the initiative could expand Medicaid coverage to about 70,000 more people. Under the ACA, the federal government would finance 94 percent of the costs of state Medicaid expansion in 2018. For 2020 and subsequent years, the federal government would cover 90 percent of the costs. As of October 2017, [19 states]( including Maine, had chosen not to expand Medicaid. [Governor Paul LePage]( (R) [vetoed legislation]( to expand Medicaid under the ACA five times. The initiative was put on the ballot by Mainers for Health Care and the support campaign raised about $2.3 million—with about $1 million coming from [The Fairness Project](. The opposition campaign raised about $416,000, with most contributions coming from individuals. This is the first citizen initiative seeking state expansion of Medicaid.   Mayors, mayors, mayors The first female mayor of Seattle since 1928 After former Seattle Mayor Ed Murray (D) announced that he would not seek re-election, the competition to replace him swelled to a 21-candidate field. Former U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan and community activist Cary Moon emerged from that primary to advance to the [general election](. Both women identify as Democrats although the election and office are both nonpartisan. At a series of public forums, the candidates sparred over housing costs, homelessness, government budgeting, and an income tax ordinance. The winner of the general election will be the first female mayor of Seattle since Bertha Knight Landes served from 1926 to 1928. Charlotte mayoral incumbent’s primary loss makes for a contentious general election Leading into the [general election]( Democratic City Councilwoman Vi Lyles and Republican City Councilman Kenny Smith are neck and neck in the race to replace Charlotte Mayor Jennifer Roberts (D), according to a poll conducted by Spectrum News and SurveyUSA from October 18 to October 21. Lyles received 41 percent support, Smith received 40 percent support, and 19 percent of voters were undecided. This puts Smith within the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error, and if he wins, Charlotte would become the third-largest city in the U.S. with a Republican mayor after San Diego (Kevin Faulconer) and Jacksonville (Lenny Curry). Lyles upset Mayor Roberts in the Democratic primary on September 12 with a nearly 10 percentage point margin of victory, despite the incumbent holding a significant lead in June polling. Lyles and Smith debated the city's non-discrimination ordinance, public transportation, housing, and taxation at candidate forums in the lead-up to the general election. Incumbent out in Minneapolis, too Members of the [Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL)]( have held the mayor's office in [Minneapolis]( since 1978, including current Mayor [Betsy Hodges](. However, Mayor Hodges' attempt to secure a DFL endorsement for her re-election bid fell short after she failed to win the 60 percent support needed at the party's convention. She came in third with 24 percent support, which trailed state Rep. [Raymond Dehn]( (32 percent) and City Councilman [Jacob Frey]( (28 percent). Hodges received criticism in the years leading up to the election regarding the city's handling of police-involved shootings of Jamar Clark, Philando Castile, and Justine Damond. Following the Damond shooting, Mayor Hodges requested the resignation of Minneapolis Police Chief Janeé Harteau. Racial equity, race relations, and low-income housing policy have also been regular subjects of contention between the 16 candidates competing in the city's [ranked choice voting system](.   Douglas County, Houston ISD two school board races to watch Candidate slates and the fate of the district superintendent highlight the nonpartisan [general election]( for four of the seven seats on the Douglas County School District Board of Education. The board's eight-year governing majority, which voted to implement a pay-for-performance system for teachers and a voucher program for private schools, is at stake in this election, and two slates of candidates are running to either continue the existing majority's policies or to change them. No incumbents filed to run for re-election, guaranteeing four new members will be elected to the District B, D, E, and G seats on the board. The winners of the six seats up for nonpartisan [general election]( in the Houston Independent School District will be faced with the possibility of state oversight. Under Texas law, if one school is classified as Improvement Required for five consecutive years, the Texas Commissioner of Education has the option of appointing a board of managers to oversee the entire school district. As of the 2017 election, 10 schools within Houston Independent School District had been classified as Improvement Required for three consecutive years. In June 2017, the board of education approved the 2017-2018 school year budget with eight of nine trustees voting yes. The budget marked the first time the school district owed more money to the state than it received, and it included a deficit of over $100 million. The district plans to use its emergency funds to make up the difference.   The first general state legislative elections since Donald Trump took office The 2017 state legislative elections will be the first general legislative elections to take place since President [Donald Trump]( (R) took office in January 2017. [Historically]( the party that holds The White House has tended to lose seats in state legislatures. The 2017 state legislative elections may offer a preview of whether that historical trend will continue into Trump's presidency. In the general election for Virginia House of Delegates, both chambers of the New Jersey legislature will hold [general elections]( Tuesday. Together, these elections represent roughly 3 percent of the total legislative seats in the country. Special state legislative elections also will take place Tuesday in 10 states. In the state of Washington, the [special elections]( will determine control of the [state Senate](. If Democrats gain effective control of the state Senate, Washington would become one of seven [Democratic state government trifectas](. Special elections will take place Tuesday in these states: - [Georgia]( - [Maine]( - [Massachusetts]( - [Michigan]( - [Missouri]( - [Mississippi]( - [New York]( - [New Hampshire]( - [South Carolina]( - [Tennessee]( - [Washington]( [Check out our top 10 races](   [Donate $10 to keep The Tap flowing](   More state and local updates Pennsylvania special election polling place workers charged with election fraud Four members of an election board were charged Monday with fraud and voter intimidation while conducting a March 21 special election for Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 197. Dolores Shaw, Calvin Mattox, Thurman George, and Wallace Hill—all Democrats—are accused of intimidating voters, casting bogus ballots, and falsely certifying results. The four charged were working at the Esperanza Health Center at Kensington and Allegheny Avenues in the 43rd Ward. Prior to the [District 197 special election]( Democrats had filed with a candidate who was later removed from the ballot via a residency challenge. Democratic officials then nominated [Emilio Vazquez]( but did so past the filing deadline. A Commonwealth Court judge rejected efforts to see Vazquez added to the ballot, and the Green Party candidate was also denied a spot on the ballot after her nomination was submitted a day past the deadline. The Republican candidate was the only eligible candidate to file for the district, though Vazquez ultimately won the election with a write-in campaign, earning 73.2 percent of the vote.   Connecticut budget stalemate (mostly) ends after Gov. Malloy signs bipartisan budget Gov. Dan Malloy (D) signed Tuesday most of a [bipartisan budget]( that sets Connecticut’s spending and taxation levels for the FY2018-2019 biennium and addresses a $3.5 billion deficit over the biennium. Malloy had previously vetoed a portion of the budget passed by the legislature that increased the hospital provider fee, citing concerns that the provision could cost the state $1 billion. After the veto, he called on the General Assembly to reconvene in special session to address the issue. With Malloy's signature on the resulting bipartisan bill, Connecticut ended a 123-day period without a budget. This was the longest period of the time the state had ever gone without a budget. The second-longest period was in 1991 when legislators debated whether to create a state income tax. [State legislatures in session](   Illinois state senator resigns leadership position after being accused of sexual harassment Illinois State Senate Majority Caucus Chairman [Ira Silverstein]( (D)[resigned]( his leadership position Wednesday following a House Personnel and Pensions Committee hearing on October 31 in which a female lobbyist accused him of sexual harassment. The lobbyist reported the harassment in November 2016 and said the harassment was related to Silverstein’s influence over legislation for which she was advocating. Silverstein said the allegations were not true, but he apologized for making the lobbyist uncomfortable. The allegations against Silverstein come in the aftermath of responses to sexual harassment in state capitols across the country, including California, Kansas, Massachusetts, and Oregon. On October 23, more than 160 women and men affiliated with the Illinois State Capitol signed an [open letter]( that detailed instances of sexual harassment and assault and called for a change in the state Capitol’s culture. The focus on sexual misconduct began in October 2017 after the New York Times published allegations of sexual harassment and assault against film producer Harvey Weinstein and the Twitter hashtag #MeToo came into use, primarily by women who said they had been sexually assaulted or harassed by men.   Louisville council member avoids removal proceedings [Louisville]( City Council member [Dan Johnson]( (D) [reached]( a settlement with the council’s metro court Wednesday which censures Johnson in relation to multiple accusations of sexual harassment and other charges of improper behavior but permits him to remain on the council until his term concludes at the end of 2018. The agreement places specific restrictions on Johnson, including allowing him to visit city hall only for council meetings, preventing him from attending ceremonial functions except in his own district, and requiring that he not run for re-election in 2018. Additionally, any questions about whether Johnson is in compliance with the agreement will be determined by a three-member committee of the council, rather than by a full metro court proceeding. Johnson’s attorneys argued that conducting the removal proceedings would be expensive to the city and that they would appeal any expulsion decision, which would likely delay his removal from council until the end of his term anyway. Opponents of the agreement, including the council members who accused Johnson of harassment, argued that allowing him to stay in his position was wrong and made them feel unsafe. [Get more of our state and local updates](     Ballotpedia depends on the support of our readers. The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns. 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