who woulda thought? This is the second installment of Brian Hicks' six-month review, plus a very special invitation...   This video got a lot of hate Two weeks ago, I read a piece from Bloomberg telling me that the so-called âexpertsâ were caught off guard by the bull rally in the first half of 2023. Moreover, not only were they caught off guard, but many if not all were calling for stocks to suck this year. Dear reader, if you need any more evidence of our role as unconventional and visionary stock market profit prophets, just read the first paragraph of this Bloomberg article published on Saturday, July 8. It's titled "Wall Street Soothsayers Are Bewildered About Whatâs Next" and reads as follows: Up and down Wall Street, forecasters were caught flat-footed by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets. That seems to have rattled their faith in what the winning playbook for the rest of it should be. Heading into the year, a handful of predictions dominated strategistsâ annual outlooks. A global recession was imminent. Bonds would trounce stocks as equities retested bear-market lows. Central banks would soon be able to stop the aggressive rate hikes that made 2022 such a year of market misery. As growth stumbled, thereâd be more pain for risky assets. But that bearish outlook was shattered as stocks rallied even as the Federal Reserve continued to ratchet up interest rates in the face of stubbornly elevated inflation. Again, [on our November 14, 2022, podcast](, we called the bottom and made the case that 2023 was going to be the start of a major bull run. The [video]( actually got a lot of HATE! (especially between March & April) On that podcast, I predicted that the S&P 500 would finish 2023 up around 24%â25%. As of this writing, the broad-based index is up 18%. I maintain my original call. [eac img 1] But I want to tell you that during this broad rally, Iâve been building positions in a select few REITs that, when I purchased them, were kicking off sweet dividends of at least 9%. They were also coming off lows. One such REIT is Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE: IIPR), a cannabis REIT that leases real estate to cannabis growers. It owns 108 properties in 19 states. Revenue for IIPR has risen from $116 million in 2020 to over $276 million today. Itâs growing, pardon the pun, like a weed. In an attempt to be fully transparent, here are the IIPR trades I made over a month ago: [eac img 2] When I made my first IIPR purchase on June 5, the stock was trading for $67.74. Its dividend yield at that level was nearly 11%. Moreover, the stock was trading at a P/E ratio nearly equivalent to its dividend yield, 11:11. Iâve been developing a fundamental equation that pinpoints the best time to buy high-yielding dividend payers based on P/E ratios, growth rates, and a bottoming pattern. Hereâs a chart of IIPR for this year: [eac img 3] Youâll notice that as IIPRâs stock has declined, the P/E ratio contracted and the dividend yield expanded. I call this the âP/E Dividend Percentage Swing Lever Trigger.â Visualize a seesaw on a playground. On one end of the seesaw, one kid pushes up. He goes higher while the kid on the other end goes lower. And they go back and forth, up and down, up and down, off the strength of the lever in the middle (the fulcrum). The dynamic at work here is that it doesnât take a lot of force to move up because of the leverage at the fulcrum. Itâs the same physical law with REITs and dividend-paying stocks. If the âEâ in the P/E ratio remains solid for future earnings and the stock is going lower, the P/E ratio goes lower too. By law (mathematically speaking), the stockâs dividend yield heads higher. What happens next is not only almost always guaranteed â itâs a thing of stock market beauty. Value investors, seeing a bargain in both the low P/E ratio and the high dividend yield, start flooding into the stock. In the case of stocks, the âforceâ (like a child pushing his end of the seesaw up) comes in the form of volume. I analyze volume with moving averages, unusual buying (perhaps volume spikes), and the number of buyers versus sellers, and the stock closes up on higher buying volume. The P/E ratio goes higher, and the dividend yield goes lower. However, with my new âP/E Dividend Percentage Swing Lever Triggerâ system, we will own the stock before the surge of buying begins. Again, I use volume studies to pinpoint the exact moment to buy. Therefore, we continue to enjoy the high dividend yield, but now we are also enjoying capital appreciation in the underlying stock. Itâs a win-win. If you look at the chart again, youâll notice at the time of my first tranche at $67.74, volume was starting to slowly increase... and so was the stock. It was mild, but it was a trigger of a much bigger move to come â and it came. My average cost on IIPR is around $69.75. This week, the stock hit $78! That's a gain of 12% in a month... and a gain of 15% from my very first purchase. Iâm also still collecting a 10% dividend. I believe IIPR is headed back over $100 a share, if not more. Thatâs what I want to talk to you about today. REITs are starting to move higher, and, in some cases, they are outperforming the broader market. I was surprised to see just how well real estate in general is performing this year, but I was equally surprised to see how well the homebuilder stocks are doing. Hereâs a chart of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB): [eac img 4] Itâs up big (not as big as the Nasdaq, but still big). As the rising real estate tide lifts all ships, REITs are back in favor again. And thatâs why Iâm writing to you today. Jason Williams, senior investment director at The Wealth Advisory, focuses on REITs and other income-generating stocks. Heâs been doing quite well this year in REITs and recently turned me onto a group of specialized REITs that he thinks are going to outperform the markets for years to come. In fact, I personally bought one of these REITs that was featured in his exclusive report. It trades for $9 a share and yields a 9% dividend. Better yet, the REIT has an indirect partnership with BP for 180 of its locations. The stock has started to move up. Iâm in at an average price of a little less than $8.70. Again, in the spirit of full transparency, hereâs my transaction record of the REIT: [eac img 5] You can get all the details in Jason's [exclusive report on this special situation right here.]( Continue to get to the good grass first, Brian Hicks Â
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