Lies, Damn Lies, and Labor Data

Here's why the labor market is even worse than it looks... Lie, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics    U.S. Treasury yields surged yesterday after the release of better than expected economic data. The big news of the day was that fewer Americans filed for unemployment than anticipated. This gave the market some wanted relief, given that jobs data had stocks in absolute turmoil a little over a week ago. But here's the thing: none of that really matters because the top line figures are a farce. Just take a look at the chart below to see what I mean. It shows all the jobs added to the U.S. economy over the last year. See if you notice anything odd... [Jobs Lies]( The vast majority of U.S. job growth has been concentrated in two places: 1) Government and 2)Private Education and Health Services, the latter of which is majority dependent on goverment funding. Virtually none of the job growth we hear about has been driven by free market spending or natural economic forces. Now, there's been some noticeable growth in leisure and hospitality but the bulk is concentrated in bars and restaraunts. No doubt, these are primarily second jobs that people have been taking on to weather the current affordability crisis. None of these things are a sign of a strong economy or a strong consumer. And you would think it would get more play but it doesn't. All the granular data just gets ignored in favor of a single neatly packaged number. Those were the yearly changes. Let's take a look at the monthly changes now... What do you notice? [Job changes month over month] What sticks out to me is the fact that several supersectors are now negative. We have net job losses in Financial, Professional Services, Other Services, Utilities, Information, and Mining... Again, none of this indicates a strong economy. And, while many people are hoping rate cuts will save us next month, they won't. Not only will cuts threaten progress we've seen on the inflation front, but there will be a lag effect before we see an impact. And we already seem to be in it. A lot of economists are still holding on to hope we dodge a recession and maybe by the grace of God there's a chance we will. But even if there's a 50/50 chance of a severe downturn (markets currently have it pinned at 56.3%), the most practical thing to do right now is to prepare. People have insurance plans on their home, their health, and their car, but almost no one has an insurance plan for their finances in the event that the market bottom falls out. [Don't miss your opportunity to act before the house of cards comes down. Take action today.]( With purpose, Jason Stutman   If you no longer wish to receive updates from The Back office you [may opt out here.]( The Back Office, Copyright © 2024, Angel Publishing, LLC., 3 E. Read Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. For customer service, please call [877-303-4529](tel:/8773034529). All rights reserved. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned. While we believe the sources of information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy of the statements made herein. Angel Publishing and The Back Office does not provide individual investment counseling, act as an investment advisor, or individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. Subscribers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal or investment counseling. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by Xerography, facsimile, or any other means is illegal and punishable by law. Â