From Bad to... Weird

"Any kind of crisis can be good. It wakes you up" [Wiggin Sessions] August 27, 2022 From Bad to… Weird "Any kind of crisis can be good. It wakes you up" – Ryan Reynolds, a.k.a. Deadpool [Addison Wiggin]Dear Reader, Looking at our headlines from this week… we started off optimistic then things went off the rails. We were looking at long-term stock market gains then ended up with an impending energy crisis in Europe. Click on the linked titles below to follow the narrative as it develops. It’s a tale you ought to hear, cause it’s possible we’ll be in the thick of it soon. --------------------------------------------------------------- 22 August 2022 [Fear Not, Buy Good Stocks… Cheap!]( [Click here to learn more]( First up, Chris Mayer, portfolio manager at Woodlock House Family Capital. His thesis: Fear the markets not. Pick good stocks. “With all dips like this people get overly fearful,” Mayer comments. “If you look back over time, they just kind of fade away in the little dips on the long-term chart.” Mayer continues: I was looking the other day at the S&P and even the 2008, 2009 crisis, which was awful to live through, is just a little dip on a line. The S&P itself is up 5x from then even now, correcting for the 20% drop. This outlook takes “thinking macro” literally. We’ve discussed stoicism before… maintaining a cool head amidst chaos and concern… [Continue reading…]( --------------------------------------------------------------- 24 August 2022 [A Scramble For The Almighty]( [Click here to learn more]( The golden thread, Jim Rickards claims, to the world’s “race to the bottom”, is what he calls a “global liquidity crisis”: People are pounding the table and yelling about the Fed printing money, et cetera. The Fed printing money is irrelevant. It didn’t cause inflation for 12 years. It’s not causing inflation now. In my view, the Austrians and the Monetarists have got that completely wrong. Right now, inflation’s coming from the supply side. We’ll see if it tips up into the demand side, it may, but we’re not there yet. But the point is, if there is a global liquidity crisis going on, a scramble for dollars, that explains the strong dollar, that explains the low price of gold, that explains why commodities are scarce. Jim presents an interesting thesis. Persistent global supply chain issues and a subsequent liquidity crisis are beyond the United States or the Fed’s purview. The current crisis is bigger than The Fed. Bigger than Jackson Hole. Bigger even than a global depression. [Continue reading…]( --------------------------------------------------------------- 25 August 2022 [Who’s In Charge, Anyway?]( [Click here to learn more]( Prosperity is not arrived at by the stroke of pen – by fiat, decree or regulation. Wealth is not created by setting interest rate policy. Doug Casey continues his briefing in earnest: These people are idiots. Everything that they've been doing for a long time, it's not just the wrong thing, it's the exact opposite of the right thing. But you don't care about these ruminations. What you want to know about is what I'm doing with my money now. Doug’s view of our situation: No matter what we say or do, the folks who are in charge of the economy – and, frankly, the world banking system – are making decisions beyond anything the individual investor can control. What’s new though? [Continue reading…]( --------------------------------------------------------------- 26 August 2022 [“Bad Decision-Making, Basically”]( [Click here to learn more]( This crisis has been toxic for months. If not bubbling for years. We talked about it with [James West]( in April… and [Mark Rossano]( in May… As always, [Jim Rickards]( has proven prophetic. With the ongoing Russian - Ukraine conflict and the cold months of a European winter in the forecast, the crisis is grabbing mainstream headlines. “Germany’s predicament is an example of ‘bad decision-making, basically,’” Ganna Gladkykh, a researcher at the European Energy Research Alliance, told Wired Magazine in an article published this morning. Gladych continues: The chill is coming for all European countries, and the idea that countries are all in this together may dissipate when the going gets tough. This crisis will stop the liberalization and integration process, and we’ll revert to each state looking at its own security of supply and energy markets. The problem is what the [European Union Institute For Security Studies]( calls “the energy trilemma.” The goal is to balance energy security, affordability, and sustainability. With all the hubbub around the flagship European Green Deal and their net-zero emissions target… what they’ve actually produced is an imbalance in the trilemma. Sustainability has upended security and affordability. [Continue reading…]( Enjoy your weekend, [Addison Wiggin] Addison Wiggin Founder, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. Given the emerging energy crisis spurred in part by the German decision to dismantle their nuclear infrastructure, we find this chart amusing. [nuclear energy stats] Ukraine still derives most of its energy from nuke plants. P.S. Here’s another entertaining note from the week. Our favorite barbarian of specialization resigned this week. Dr. Fauci is heralded here in a mainstream Chinese publication: [newspaper] Dr. Fauci leaves abrogates his post (source: a sidewalk kiosk in New York City) --------------------------------------------------------------- 5 ways to recession-proof your portfolio [Click here.]( 10-year Treasuries are worse than at any time since 1790. 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