On Track for a Twain Wreck

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks.” [Unsubscribe]( [Wiggin Sessions] July 08, 2022 On Track for a Twain Wreck "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks.” — Mark Twain [Addison Wiggin]Dear Reader, In The Tragedy of Pudd’nhead Wilson, published in 1894, author Mark Twain calls October a “peculiarly dangerous month to speculate in stocks.” He quickly adds that “the others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February” — indicating that speculation is always dangerous. June and July this year look like they’ve proven Twain correct. We’re not sure why Twain led his list with October other than being prophetic about the crash in 1929 and a multitude of other events. In the years after Pudd’nhead came out, the tenth month has gained a reputation for being particularly volatile on Wall Street. Some investors even call it the “Mark Twain Effect.” The Panic of 1907 happened in October. The market crash that kicked off the Great Depression occurred on Oct. 24, 1929. Black Monday was Oct. 19, 1987. Then there was the “mini-crash” on Oct. 27, 1997. The bear market of the Great Recession started on Oct. 11, 2007. What happens in the years when June and July give everyone the boogies? The Fed meets again on July 26th. There’s another rate hike expected. To use our friend Jim Rickards metaphor, there’s a snowstorm full of flakes heading our way. And, as we’ve become fond of saying, it only will take one to trigger the avalanche. Our editors are certainly aware of the possibility — and are prepared to act when the signs become clear. All we can do in the meantime is wait and see… so we may as well enjoy ourselves. One way to do that is with a good bottle of wine, like the ones offered by the [Bonner Private Wine Partnership](. Founder Will Bonner says he was inspired to start it because of his love of malbec wine from Argentina’s Salta province — home to the high-altitude vineyards [we’ve been telling you about](. Salta wines have “that extra oomph from the extreme sun and altitude condition,” he tells me. The problem was that he “couldn’t find wine from Salta anywhere.” So he hired Diego Samper to help him out. Diego “figured out how to get the wine in a truck over the Andes mountains to a port in Chile, and then up the Pacific coast to Los Angeles.” Their mission to share these wines seems even more urgent as we progress into a recession. “The pandemic is still hanging around, so we can't travel as much as we would like to,” Will says. “So to have an authentic experience with a wine that is from a special place I think is really a truly unique, special occasion to be experiencing this place through your taste buds.” You won’t find such an “an authentic experience just at the grocery store or down at your wine shop,” Will says. “That’s why we want to share these wines with as many people as possible.” Learn more about Salta and the Partnership — not to mention the ingredient added to most wines that makes them more akin to “just drinking a grape soda” — in today’s conversation, [here](. Follow your bliss, [Addison Wiggin] Addison Wiggin Founder, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. Funny how markets change minds. Cathie Wood — the head of ARK Investment Funds and Bitcoin enthusiast — predicted last October crude oil will “soon be obsolete.” She said the nascent price spikes were “a function more of supply than demand,” likening the movements to the volatility in whale oil prices just before everyone stopped using the stuff. Ha. [Click here to learn more] There must be a metaphor here, right? Our in-house resource expert, Byron King, disagreed fairly vehemently. Saying he didn’t think fossil fuels will become a vestige of the Industrial Age anytime soon.The trained geologist walked us through everything that’s happening in the energy sector. They’ve only gotten more interesting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The politics make everything worse, still. “Things are tough,” he says, “with fundamental scarcities up and down the line.” Solar and wind power are still a long, long way off from being able to provide all of our electrical needs. “You cannot run large cities, let alone heavy industries like steel, aluminum or large factories from renewables,” Byron contends. “It seems a bit premature to start pacing the widow’s walk to declare the oil industry permanently lost at sea,” we wrote at the time, mangling as many metaphors along the way as we could. Given the oil price is at $104.45… and the national gas average is $5.00… And Cathie Wood’s Ark fund has dropped 48%… Byron might have been on to something. Still, markets make opinions, right? Enjoy a Collection of Wines From the Edge of the World Get access to exclusive small-batch wines from the remote vineyards of Argentina — for half the retail price! Discover unique bottles you can’t find at your local liquor store. [Click here for details](. Ed. note: Got something to say? Send your feedback to The Wiggin Sessions, [here.](mailto:WigginSessions@5minforecast.com) Follow the Wiggin Sessions on Social Media! [Facebook Group]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [YouTube]( [LinkedIn]( [The Financial Reserve]The Wiggin Sessions is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Consilience, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Wiggin Sessions e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Wiggin Sessions, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( For any further comments or concerns please email us at support@5minforecast.com. 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